(Based on April 2017 data releases)

Monthly headlines:

• UK economic growth slows in Q1 as output from consumer-focused industries weakened    
• UK consumer price inflation holds steady, but wage growth slows further  
• US GDP growth weakens as the outlook for the Eurozone continues to improve  

The UK economy grew by 0.3% in Q1 2017, slower than the growth of 0.7% recorded in Q4.  Weakening GDP growth in Q1 was mainly due to growth in service sector output, which accounts for over three quarters of UK economic output.

UK CPI inflation stood at 2.3% in March 2017, unchanged from February but still above the Bank of England’s 2% target.  Rising prices for food, clothing and footwear were the main contributors to the change in rate.

The first estimate of US GDP revealed that the US economy, the world’s largest, grew at an annualised rate of 0.7% in Q1 2017.  This was the slowest rate of growth since Q1 2014.  The slowdown was largely driven by consumer spending, which accounts for two-thirds of US economic output.

For full details of this month’s economic review click here.

The National Cyber Security Center (NCSC) are offering advice to businesses following the coordinated ransomware attack on thousands of private and public sector organisations on Friday.

MESSAGE FROM NATIONAL CYBER SECURITY CENTRE (NCSC) “Since the global coordinated ransomware attack on thousands of private and public sector organisations across dozens of countries on Friday, there have been no sustained new attacks of that kind.  But it is important to understand that the way these attacks work means that compromises of machines and networks that have already occurred may not yet have been detected, and that existing infections from the malware can spread within networks.

This means that as a new working week begins it is likely, in the UK and elsewhere, that further cases of ransomware may come to light, possibly at a significant scale.

Our national focus must therefore be on two lines of defence.

The first is to limit the spread and impact of the attacks that have already occurred.  Due to broad government and partner efforts, a variety of tools are now publicly available to help organisations to do this.  This guidance can be found on our homepage – ncsc.gov.uk – under the title Protecting Your Organisation From Ransomware: https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/guidance/ransomware-latest-ncsc-guidance 

We know already that there have been attempts to attack organisations beyond the National Health Service. It is therefore absolutely imperative that any organisation that believes they may be affected, follows and implements this guidance. We have set out two pieces of guidance: one for organisations and one for private individuals and SMEs which can be applicable regardless of the age of the software in question.  It will be updated as and when further mitigations become available and we will announce when updates have been made on Twitter (@ncsc) and elsewhere.

Secondly, it is possible that a ransomware attack of this type and on this scale could recur, though we have no specific evidence that this is the case.  What is certain is that ransomware attacks are some of the most immediately damaging forms of cyber attack that affects home users, enterprises and governments equally.

It is also the case that there are a number of easy-to-implement defences against ransomware which very considerably reduce the risk of attack and the impact of successful attacks.  These simple steps to protect against ransomware are not being applied by either the public or organisations as thoroughly as they should be.

Three simple steps for companies to undertake which are also set out on our website (https://www.ncsc.gov.uk/guidance/protecting-your-organisation-ransomware) and can be summarised as follows:

1. Keep your organisation’s security software patches up to date
2. Use proper anti-virus software services
3. Most importantly for ransomware, back up the data that matters to you, because you can’t be held to ransom for data you hold somewhere else.

Home users and small businesses can take the following steps to protect themselves:

1. Run Windows Update
2. Make sure your AntiVirus product is up to date and run a scan – If you don’t have one install one of the free trial versions from a reputable vendor
3. If you have not done so before, this is a good time to think about backing important data up – You can’t be held to ransom if you’ve got the data somewhere else.

In the days ahead, the NCSC, working closely with the National Crime Agency in support of their criminal investigation, and with international partners in both other governments and the commercial sector, will continue our round-the-clock effort to get ahead of this threat.  We would like to reassure the public that resources from the Government, law enforcement and public and private sector organisation are working together to manage further disruption from the current attack and to increase protection against any further attacks in the coming days. The country’s security and law enforcement agencies are working round the clock to protect the public. Private sector efforts have made a very significant contribution to mitigate the cyber attacks so far and to  prevent further disruption.

We will provide further updates as and when appropriate.”

Commenting on various Labour and Conservative proposals on worker’s rights, Nova Fairbank, Public Affairs Manager for Norfolk Chamber said:

“There is little appetite within the Norfolk business community for a roll-back of employment rights.  Businesses worry about the prospect of costly or bureaucratic new obligations, no matter how well-intentioned.

“Norfolk Chamber will watch closely as more detail emerges on the various proposals, to ensure that they do not give rise to expensive new obligations or unintended consequences – especially for the thousands of civic-minded local businesses who already do everything in their power to engage, support, train and reward their workforce.

“In the past, we have seen campaign-season promises on workplace rights create unrealistic expectations, and undermine relationships that have been painstakingly built up between firms and employees over many years. That must not be allowed to occur if some, or all, of these proposals become the law of the land.

“Some of the headline propositions in the Labour Party manifesto will give business communities across Norfolk real cause for concern. High personal taxation, sweeping nationalisation and deep intervention in business decision-making are not the hallmarks of an ambitious and enterprising society.  However, there are some bright spots in Labour’s manifesto, notably clear and specific commitments to reform Britain’s broken business rates system, which successive governments have failed to implement.

Commenting specifically on the proposals to increase the national minimum wage which is proposed by both Conservative and Labour, Mrs Fairbank said:

“Low pay and low social mobility are a challenge to the Norfolk economy, but they won’t be solved just by driving up wage rates. The best way to get a high-wage economy is through better education, training, and investment, by schools, universities and businesses alike.”

“Whilst many companies would have the ability to increase pay, others would struggle to do so alongside pensions auto-enrolment, the apprenticeship levy, employer National Insurance contributions, and other up-front costs. Some may have to divert money from training and investment to increase pay, which could hurt their productivity. Others may stop hiring altogether.”

Commenting on the Lib Dem promise of £100-a-week for budding entrepreneurs

“Promising budding entrepreneurs an £100-a-week allowance to help with living costs is welcomed, as it will help support start up and entrepreneurial businesses, however these businesses still face many up front costs and taxes, including business rates.

“Norfolk Chamber believes that fundamental change to the business rates system is needed, including stripping plant and machinery from rates assessments that does so much to discourage business investment.  We would call on a future government to re-visit the detail of reform package previously discussed to address the serious concerns business ratepayers have, and as an interim fix the appeals system which is no longer fit for purpose.”

Commenting on the triggering of Article 50 by the Prime Minister, Theresa May, Caroline Williams, Chief Executive of Norfolk Chamber said:

“Now that Brexit negotiations are set to begin, businesses across Norfolk and the UK and their trading partners in Europe want answers to practical questions.  A down to earth and sensible dialogue on the real-world issues, rather than verbal volleys between London and Brussels, would give Norfolk firms greater confidence over the next two years.

Mrs Williams outlined five key asks that Norfolk Chamber, in consultation with its members, would like to see as part of the Brexit negotiations:

1.       Business Voice: The Government appear to be making incorrect assumptions in some areas – there is a need to ensure that businesses have a clear input into negotiations, to explain the potential impact of Government decisions.

2.       Labour: Existing EU workers should have the right to stay in the UK.  Going forward, there should be a bureaucratic-free system for seasonal workers and key staff.  A simplified system which will help key Norfolk sectors such as tourism, food producers and agriculture continue to grow.

3.       International Trade: Tariffs need to be kept to a minimum, with simplified customs procedures to make exporting as easy as possible.  To grow our export capacity, swift trade agreements with countries should be reached and trade missions should be expanded.

4.       Standards: Product standards should be aligned and recognised by the EU, to ensure that Norfolk products remain competitive.

5.       Funding: UK funding levels for business and people development need to be maintained in Norfolk to the levels that were formally funded from the EU.

“Norfolk’s business voice needs to be loud and clear over the coming months.  If any business has particular concerns or worries, do pass them on to us.  The British Chambers of Commerce, our Westminster office, is meeting with Ministers and senior civil servants daily and need to know how you feel.”

Over 100 Norfolk businesses attended the Chamber’s first Cyber Security Conference at The Space, Norwich this week.  The half day conference provided top tips on how businesses can improve their cyber security measures and gave an overview of the incoming General Data Protection Regulation (GDPR), which comes into effect in 2018 and will impact on all businesses.

The wide raging ‘Ransomware’ attack that made recent headlines by hitting the NHS and spreading to more than 150 countries sparked a number of thought-provoking discussions.

The event was hosted by Paul Maskall, Security Adviser for the Norfolk and Suffolk Cyber Crime Unit. Paul encouraged delegates to place greater value on their business’ data and ensure that they take responsibility, act proactively and implement robust security measures to protect themselves from the rising threat of data breaches.  He said: “Ransomware is not a new thing and incidents have been doubling over the last few years. Businesses can take some simple steps to protect themselves.  One step would be to ensure that they take regular backups.  On modern ransomware, restoring from a  backup is one of the very few ways in which to circumvent it.”

As well as Mr Maskall, other speakers included: Peter Freeman, Managing Director of FreeClix; Kitty Rosser of law firm, Birketts; Andy Taylor of APMG International and Rahul Colaco of PwC.

Some of the key areas the speakers suggested that businesses should focus on were:

• Training staff on cyber security and data protection.
• Creating strong passwords, update them regularly, especially when staff leave
• Consider undertaking the Cyber Essentials – a government backed accreditation scheme to help you demonstrate that you have taken essential precautions to protect your business and data from cyber threats.
• The insecurity of Public WIFI and the risk of accessing private information such as online banking details.
• Undertaking independent penetration testing to check how secure your network is.
• Creation of policies for staff use and to outline what happens in the case of a cyber attack or data protection breach.

Commenting on the recent high profile hacking, Peter Freeman, Managing Director of FreeClix said:

“Last week’s attack shows there are vulnerabilities all around and many businesses need to update their technical equipment, infrastructure and security systems, which could be more vulnerable to attacks.”

Kitty Rosser of law firm, Birketts commented on new General Data Protection Regulation, which comes into effect in May 2018. She said:

“GDPR will replace our current Data Protection Laws and will bring about huge amounts of changes.  Companies need to be proactive to make sure they are ready.”

The event drew a lot of attention from local media, with extensive coverage of the event provided by Mustard TV’s Neil Perry. The conference was the main feature of Thursday evening’s Business Extra TV programme

The event was well received by delegates and proved to be successful in highlighting the importance of cyber security. Karen McDowall, facilities manager at financial advisory firm Smith and Pinching, said: “I wanted to come to check from an IT point of view that we had everything in hand, and we do have a lot of it in place. It has boosted my confidence in a lot of things and also shown me the areas where we need to improve.”

Harry Mitchell, marketing manager at Anglia Farmers, added: “For us, as an organisation which holds thousands of members’ personal information our priority is going to be how safely that data is held. We are being proactive to make sure we keep our members’ data safe. Today was another sense check to reassure us that we are taking the right steps.”   

Ahead of the general election, Norfolk Chamber is setting out the key Norfolk business asks for any future government and is calling for more strategic infrastructure improvements.

Norfolk has a vibrant and diverse business community, but a key barrier to future economic growth for those businesses is our physical infrastructure i.e. roads and rail links. 

Nova Fairbank, Public Affairs Manager for Norfolk Chamber said:

“Infrastructure on its own does not create jobs, it is the business community who do.  Norfolk Chamber wants to see that agreed transport improvements are delivered on time; further infrastructure barriers are removed; and new opportunities created, to ensure that Norfolk businesses have the levels of infrastructure needed to create new jobs and economic growth.”

The key Chamber member infrastructure asks are:

Roads

A47

Norfolk Chamber is calling for more sections of the A47 to be dualled, including the Acle Straight and the section between Tilney to East Winch, near King’s Lynn, as well as the Hardwick flyover. 

Jonathan Cage, President of Norfolk Chamber and Managing Director of Create Consulting Engineers said:

“Norfolk Chamber is working in partnership with the A47 Alliance and its members to ensure that more improvements are delivered along the length of the A47 from Peterborough in the West to Great Yarmouth and Lowestoft in the East. 

“A fully dualled A47 will help to boost the economic prosperity of Norfolk and a large part of the east of England, and will make a significant contribution to the national economy.  A47 improvements could help deliver over 16,000 more jobs, over 10,000 new homes and an increase of £706m per annum in the economic output within 20 years.”

Peter Brown, Managing Director of Jack Richards & Son said:

“At present the A47 creates a bottleneck out of Norfolk towards our markets in the Midlands and the North adding significant costs for manufacturing companies based in our county. We urgently need investment to relieve this restriction and give Norfolk business’s the opportunity to flourish.”

Great Yarmouth Third River Crossing

A third river crossing would ease congestion, improve connectivity to key growth areas such as the Enterprise Zones.  The Norfolk Chamber and its members have supported the local authorities to submit the business case for £1.2m of funding to the Department of Transport in March 2017.  Norfolk Chamber is calling for a swift response from the Department of Transport by summer 2017.

Commenting on the need for a third river crossing, Neil Orford, President of Great Yarmouth Chamber Council said:

“A third river crossing in Great Yarmouth will help to improve that connectivity and create lots of new jobs.  It will improve links across the town and to the rest of the region and reduce congestion.  All of which will save businesses time and money, whilst allowing them to increase economic growth.”

Rail

Whilst the Greater Anglia rail franchise is set to deliver brand new rolling stock, improvements on the Greater Eastern Mainline between Norwich in London are urgently needed to ensure the franchise can meet its full potential.  Improvements to safety, journey times, capacity and frequency cannot be achieved unless upgrades those needed in the Ely area to signalling, junctions and a bridge; the Suffolk Haughley junction;  doubling of Norwich Trowse swing bridge;  the South Colchester loops; South Chelmsford re-signalling and level crossing closures.

Commenting on the need to improve the rail infrastructure, Simon Watson, Partner at Lovewell Blake in Norwich said:

“The improvement of rail links between Norwich and London is vitally important to both Lovewell Blake and our clients.  The continued economic growth in our region is becoming increasingly reliant on business opportunities, both nationally and internationally, needing to be accessed via the capital. We have heartily welcomed the new rail franchise and are looking forward to the delivery of new trains.  However improvements to track infrastructure between Norwich and London would greatly enhance the attraction of doing business with Norfolk businesses and would facilitate attracting the calibre of people required by employers in our region.” 

Under the Lisbon Treaty, the European Commission was granted new powers over negotiating trade agreements but the extent that it still had to involve the Member States before agreeing the final deal has remained unclear.

Accordingly, the Commission decided to ask the EU’s Court of Justice (CJEU) to examine the issue.

The free trade agreement (FTA) with Singapore was chosen as the test case as it is similar to several other agreements that are currently under consideration. The result is “Opinion 2/15”, as this is not a legal case and is not therefore delivered as a ruling.

Available at curia.europa.eu, the Opinion must have slightly disappointed the Commission as it makes clear that certain matters in the FTA do not fall within its exclusive competence and must, therefore, be concluded by the EU and the Member States acting together.

What will please the Commission, however, is that the CJEU makes clear for the first time the areas where it does have competence.

These are the parts of the agreement relating to: access to the EU market and the Singapore market so far as concerns goods and services (including all transport services); the fields of public procurement and energy generation from sustainable non-fossil sources.

The Commission can also deal with provisions concerning intellectual property rights, those designed to combat anti-competitive activity, those concerning sustainable development and the rules relating to exchange of information, and to obligations governing “notification, verification, co-operation, mediation, transparency and dispute settlement between the parties”.

It has already been noted in Brussels that this, in theory, makes agreeing a swift trade deal with the UK easier as the Commission could restrict such an agreement to the areas of its own competence while leaving other matters to the slower process of agreement by the 27 Member States.