The recent demise of Thomas Cook and Zenith Home improvements left the public in shock and with Thomas Cook, required a significant operation to repatriate travellers. But what happens to the employees in such a situation, when an insolvency is sudden and unexpected? Jobs may be lost at short notice, leaving employees in a potentially very difficult financial situation. The employees are technically redundant, but the employer may be in a position where it is unable to pay statutory redundancy, notice pay or even outstanding wages.

Fortunately for such employees, certain amounts owed to employees by an insolvent employer are payable out of the National Insurance Fund (NIF), subject to certain conditions being met.

The NIF can pay:

1. Unpaid wages up to a maximum overall limit of eight weeks’ pay and subject to the current maximum statutory limit on a week’s pay (£525 at present), less tax and National Insurance contributions (NICs);
2. Holiday pay taken or accrued in the 12-month period ending on the date of the insolvency, up to a maximum overall limit of six weeks’ pay and subject to the current maximum statutory limit on a week’s pay, less tax and NICs;
3. Statutory notice pay (one week per full year of employment, up to a maximum of 12 weeks) up to the current maximum statutory limit on a week’s pay, less “notional” tax and NICs. The notice pay is reduced by the “notional” tax and NICs to reflect the fact that the employee would receive the net amount had it been paid directly by the employer. There is no actual deduction of tax and NICs that is paid to HM Revenue & Customs (HMRC). However, the employee is required to mitigate their loss by trying to find alternative employment and if they do so, then the notice pay can be reduced by the amount of actual pay they receive in the new role;
4. Statutory redundancy payment (broadly one week per full year of employment, depending on the employee’s age, up to a maximum of 20 years and subject to the current maximum statutory limit on a week’s pay) less any amount paid by the employer. Only employees with more than two years’ continuous service are entitled to a statutory redundancy payment;
5. A protective award where the employer has failed to inform and consult the employees’ representatives when proposing to make 20 or more redundancies.

In addition, HMRC becomes responsible for unpaid statutory sick pay, statutory maternity pay, statutory paternity pay, statutory adoption pay and statutory shared parental pay from the date of the formal insolvency.

The conditions for payment are that:

1. An individual must be an employee of an insolvent employer;
2. The employee’s contract of employment must have been terminated;
3. On the “appropriate date” (the date when the employer became insolvent for unpaid wages and holiday pay; the later of the date when the employer became insolvent, the date when employment terminated or the date on which the award was made in relation to a protective award; and the later of the date on which the employer became insolvent and the date of termination of employment in relation to any other payment), the employee must have been entitled to be paid a “relevant debt” (one of the payments identified above);
4. The employee obtains a lifting of the automatic stay on proceedings in administrations and compulsory liquidations to claim a protective award and the claim must be established by an employment tribunal;
5. No payment will be paid out of the NIF unless the Secretary of State has received a statement from the relevant insolvency practitioner of the amount of the debt in question (except where the Secretary of State decides that no such statement is required);
6. In relation to a statutory redundancy payment, the employee must also show that their employer is liable to pay them an “employer’s payment” (broadly, a statutory redundancy payment or equivalent payment) and that one of the following applies:
   1. the employer is insolvent and the whole or part of the payment remains unpaid;
   2. the employer is not insolvent but the employee has taken all reasonable steps (but not necessarily legal proceedings) to obtain payment from the employer.

This will bring relief to employees who have concerns about ending up in such a situation, but where the insolvency involves a considerable number of employees, the liability to make such payments could have a significant impact upon the National Insurance Fund (which is also responsible for state pension and other government benefits).

Carla Gowing is an experienced Employment Solicitor who is able to advise employees regarding their particular circumstances. Call 01603 660 811 or email carlagowing@hatchbrenner.co.uk

Using social video to help your business!

‘We run a business that does Social Videos’ is an answer me and my Brother (Directors of Eastkin) frequently say around the dinner table at family occasions. It’s usually met with an uninterested “ah…” or a “what the hell does that mean?” or our Mother who said “What? Video about seashells?”.   It also seems to be a bit of a buzzword – but despite all this – we think it’s an incredibly important asset for your business to consider. So here is a small rundown of social video. Social Video is essentially video designed specifically for your social platforms. It’s as simple as that. Social media videos.   

Video has always been an incredible tool to  express information in a way that is interesting, engaging and if done well, fun. However, It is also a tool completely underused by SME’s. I personally think this is due to its rather grandiose reputation and how difficult it might be to track its ROI – but there has been a steep rise in use of video marketing through the larger agencies in the last decade. Digital and marketing agencies are starting to recognise that video is no longer a tool used by multi-million pound corporations to run TVC’s, but a tool used widespread by every type of business to increase brand trust, identity and inform their audiences of their ongoing journey.  With the spectacular invention and increased use of paid targeted ads – marketing agencies are now able to directly target your dream demographic (and your already loyal, captured consumer). In the last few years, agencies have started identifying the way videos need to be designed in order to ‘stop the scroll’ and adhere to the modern day attention spans. It’s something that, as a video agency ourselves, has taken some time to adjust to. Instead of giving yourself 30 seconds to get the audiences attention, you now have 3. The most important seconds of all! (Top Tip: Don’t start with a logo!!!)

Video production has become incredibly nimble. Instead of spending thousands of pounds on a crew – digitalised cameras and skeleton productions has allowed for video to become affordable and accessible as a marketing tool. No longer are companies spending millions of pounds on 1 TVC that will run for 3 months – but they’re able to make loads of videos, all with different targeting specifics, for the cost of a 6 month print in a local magazine. We’ve even made videos for businesses that didn’t have footage – but rather product images and home iPhone footage. It worked tremendously on the paid social platform and just goes to show what you can do in one morning with your iPhone. You can see that here and here.  We think it’s time for SME’s to embrace the uprise in digital video as a marketing tool. It, of course, needs to be handled delicately, so that creativity isn’t thrown aside – but we want to rid of the reputation of old school video production agencies and bring in a new lease of life.  

Last year, Eastkin Creative delivered 3000 videos – which just goes to show the extent of how in demand video is. Video marketing and social video will dominate the way businesses communicate to their audience. In fact, a Facebook executive has predicted video will dominate their entire platform by 2021 (Quartz). Social Media posts have 48% more views than any other (HubSpot) and Social Video gets shared 1200% more than graphics and images combined (Wordstream).

So, stop printing flyers, or putting entire marketing budgets into print – and start bringing out the Spielberg in you! 

On 14 March it will be three years since Microsoft rolled out Teams. Since its launch Microsoft Teams has enabled businesses to enhance their productivity through its integration of collaborative technologies. Here are our top five reasons why your business should adopt Microsoft Teams: Communicate efficiently with the right people Within the interface you can set up Team channels to communicate directly with specific departments or project teams. For example, you could set up a marketing channel to include staff who work in that department. Each Team has a ‘Posts’ tab, creating a group chat where you can share files and collaborate. You can tag specific members of the team in your posts if there is something direct you need them to review. Your Team will also have a Files tab which gives access to specific files for that Team. This means there’s no more scrolling through endless folders you don’t need. You can also set up a range of other tabs including to-do lists, notepads, spreadsheets, and so much more! Say goodbye to hundreds of emails We’ve all had that panic of coming back after a holiday to hundreds of emails. In Teams, you can simply check your channels and read the flow of conversation. This eliminates time wasted reading one email at a time to catch up. Collaborate easily On the Teams interface you can create and collaborate on different files without switching apps. Teams has strong integration with Office 365 allowing you to produce Excel, Word and PowerPoint documents. These can then be shared within your Team to gather feedback and make quick changes. More effective meetings If you regularly plan meetings, then Meetings in Teams is great for you! You can invite the meeting participants and share the agenda within the chat. This allows you to then receive quick changes and make updates that all attendees can see. Once you’ve held the meeting a recording is immediately available, meaning there’s no panic if you missed something. You can then create actions in the same channel and follow up on those. Constantly connected Teams is a fully cloud-based solution meaning you can access it anytime, anywhere. There is a mobile Teams app which gives you immediate access to all the apps and documents, same as on your PC. Teams keeps you connected on the go. If you think embracing Microsoft Teams could be the right move for your business, speak to our expert team today to find out how we can support you.

Tudor Lodge Consultants has worked with a number of companies in the gaming industry across casinos, bingo and slots – and remarkably the strategies and marketing techniques are different to any other we work with.

There is a whole story about casinos that goes unnoticed and unacknowledged. The side of casinos that a few people know and talk about gets lost amidst all the horror stories that are often weaved around this industry. Most of us might not even know that casinos are a multi-billion industry unless someone spelt it out for us. Casinos and various other forms of gambling have a significant contribution to the economy of the world.

The industry is closely intertwined with the fate of several other domains, like tourism, real estate and entertainment. Any area that is known to thrive majorly on the footfall of tourists has an inclination towards building casinos, since casinos only help in increasing the revenue garnered from the tourism industry. Having said that, it is important to understand the techniques and the marketing strategies the casino industry uses to attract customers. This information can help one to understand the ways in which casinos function and the reasons why they attract millions of people to them every year. 

Casinos Build their Loyalty by Appealing to the Emotions of their Potential Customers:

One of the biggest marketing strategies of the casino industry is to bank on the emotions of its potential customers. They gauge and understand the pulse of their customers which is quite an essential aspect to factor in while framing other strategies. Human emotions are a massive asset for businesses to bank on, and casinos happen to use this factor to their favor. Everyone loves to earn more money, and when the money comes with the added perk of the rush of adrenaline through the veins, it only enhances the experience. 

Freebies and Bonuses are used to Attract Customers:

The casino industry knows what works and what does not with its customers, and one crucial factor is giving away gifts and bonuses. No one likes to miss out on freebies, and the casino industry understands consumer psychology all too well. Freebies and bonuses are up for grabs most of the time, and they attract even the most unsuspecting lot to the casino floors. People like to grab the bonuses offered because they allow them to place higher bets without the fear of running significant losses. Websites like www.onlinegamblingcalifornia.com offer a plethora of bonuses for their customers, and once people get the taste of these casino games, they keep coming back for more. 

Casinos Dig Into the Demographic Data to Understand the Preferences:

The casino industry functions on well-researched demographic data to understand the preferences of their potential customers. Not everyone would have the heart or mind to indulge in casino games, and research is imperative for the casinos to target the right segment of the population. Plus, research can also help casinos understand what percentage of people like to engage in table games and how much would like to indulge in slot machines. Understanding consumer behavior is one of the primary techniques used by casinos to grab the attention of the right population. 

Casinos Use the Strategy of Partnership to Invite the Right Attention:

It might sometimes be a tough choice for casinos to work on their own, and this is when the technique of partnerships comes into the scene. Casinos partner up with several other companies to get the best deals for their customers; and this is enough to bring in the right attention to the casinos. People would not like to put in their hard-earned money into something that does not promise a good enough reason. Therefore, casinos make sure of the fact that they are partnering up with companies that have a decent reputation in what they do. This lends more credibility to their business and their motto, and as a result, draws more customers.    

Casinos Also Highlight their Community Services to Build their Reputation:

People who invest their money in the games offered by the casinos like to see the money being spent on something good. And casinos use this factor to highlight their community services so that high-rollers know where exactly their money is going. Most of these casinos donate some amount of proceeds to the cause of charities. However, charities are not the only place where casinos invest the money. Industries like healthcare, tourism and other forms of entertainment are also lucrative options for casinos. These help the casino industry to build its reputation because this human value draws the right attention.

Conclusion:

There are a number of strategies that casinos use to target the right customers. It all begins with understanding the pulse of the audience and devising marketing strategies that can fulfil what their potential customers require. Therefore, any casino that is still looking for ways to reach out to their target group might want to invest in the right combination of these strategies. 

Foreceasting Sales as a Foundation For System Shocks

The Way Most Businesses Forecast

Most businesses, to a large degree, forecast sales using the naive forecasting method. Put simply, this was what we did this time last year, with a little bit more added on. It may be possible, although I have never been on the receiving end of it, with a little take off. Naive forecasting is the very basis of sales target settting and planning, but it is also the simplest and most prone to error. Naive forecasting may well have been the way of the world at the begining of business. Luckily though, it didn’t take long for people to begin adding their own information into the mix to begin to start to move the goalposts on sales planning. I have worked in very large global companies where the the sales planning strategy is naive forecasting, with a lot of information layered on top of it. In all honesty, this is how a lot of businesses work, and good businesses at that.

However, you can’t turn solely to these feelings with any industry shock, be it an outbreak of a virus, or something more positive effectively with just gut instinct. Sure it was obvious that England making it through to the semi finals of a world cup, along with a hot summer people, would buy more beer. However, through statistical analysis, the true upturn in sales could have been much more widely known, discussed and acted upon.

Why Naive Forecasting In a Shock Might Not Be Enough

For me to comment on what is needed, depends on a business situation and it’s appetite for risk. Why risk? I hear people say. I say risk for a simple reason. With a tighter outlook on sales forecasting, through uncertainty and industry shocks, be it positive or negative, we have a greater need to derisk areas of business and maintain control.The issues faced by big business and SME’s may, at some points, be different. Whilst at others the same. However, the takeaway here is that there are not many business should be actively risk seeking in all of their endeavours. Having a greater level of knowledge can, generally, reduce the risk that is faced by any business. I have outlined some examples of risks that can be mitigated with solid shock planning.

Stock Levels

Having an understanding of the risk and potential impact on stock levels allows a business to order the correct quantities in advance. Don’t forget, these can be peaks, as well as troughs. For example, a pub may have to evaluate how much beer to order based on temperatures expected in the summer period, whilst this can be done with naive forecasting and a little knowledge that a heat wave is imminent. A legitimate data driven approach will give a much tighter start point, than simple naive forecasting. Allowing, if neccessary further input from the team to tighten the forecast further.

Labour Allocation

Knowing a spike or decline is set to occur gives businesses an opportunity to adapt to these changes from a labour perspective effectively. Going back to the beer analogy, knowing there will be a 46% increase in sales through a summer period, begining in 9 weeks, and that it takes a 3 week onboarding cycle. The hiring period would be around 8 weeks prior to the spike starting. Ensuring a good level of staffing where required. Conversely, should there be a decline, it may be best served to begin certain process improvement projects, or reallocate staff to other areas of the business, not over-burdoning the business with extra labour in the wrong areas. Drastically impacting productivity and conversion costs. Adversely affecting the bottom line. 

Direction and Targets

By understanding what the potential peak or trough of any potential impact of such a shock will allow a business to incetivise and retarget staff accordingly. This will reset expectations and instill confidence that management are aware of what the situation is, and are planning accordingly. For situations such as COVID-19 – this could involve release of information on potential sales decline, and what is expected of employees. Allowing management to communicate effectively why decisions are being taken. What the plan is, and how it will progress with ongoing analysis. 

Wider Feedback

If through conducting correct data analysis, it may become apparent that a business fortunes is directly linked to another element. This could be outside of it’s control. It may sound basic, but for ease of understanding, let’s go back to the pub. If a pub only makes profit due to soaring temperature and beer garden sales. What happens if there is an extremely cold winter. Noting just how much the reliance is on external factors allows businesses to diversify. Focussing on revenues not directly linked to that external factor.

Other Options

There are other options open to businesses in such system shock situations, one such being the use of Holts-Winter forecasting methodology. Holts-Winter takes an external data source, and internalises that datas effects on sales. Holts-Winter itself takes into account seasonality, allowing the user to internalise the external dataset to the model. Through trial and error the user can determine if the external dataset is firstly relevant. Secondly, how it can relevant it is, through minimising the standard error and mean squared error. This can be used, in situations such as those we find ourselves in now, to internalise infection numbers and their relevance on sales over time. Or daily average temperatures.

Applying The Data Into An Outcome

Ulimately, the goal of any forecasting isn’t to produce pretty graphs, or range outcomes based on moving datasets. Data is a guide to give direction to how a business should react to potential outcomes. At Akcela, we support businesses not only in producing such data, but implementing actions based on their findings to drive efficiency and positive outomes. Contact Akcela to find out more.

This post is a shorened thought provoker, edited from the original post found at https://akcela.co.uk/sales-forecasting-through-uncertainty/